Protective assets will remain central to diversified portfolios

Now that sovereign bonds are no longer regarded as a prime source of portfolio protection and diversification, investors are having to seek out alternatives. While none of the replacements are perfect, each one can act as a useful hedge against equity markets for those investors wanting to scale back their risk exposure. Some are volatile (gold), others are pricey (put options) while others can concurrently deliver investment returns (hedge funds). Here’s a brief overview.

Gianluca Tarolli, Chief Economist and Strategist, co-CIO

Gold – also a hedge against inflation
The main drawback of investing in gold as a defensive or protective asset is its high volatility, which is closer to that of equities than that of sovereign bonds. This feature caps its optimum portfolio weighting. Its main virtue is the diversification that it can supply to a cross-asset portfolio, of course in addition to its high returns in times of risk aversion, just as investors are looking to shield their assets. Looking ahead to 2022, the higher interest rates that we expect in the US – resulting potentially in a stronger currency – will not work in favour of gold. But we also expect an upswing in inflation, which in the event that the Fed decided to stay its hand on rate hikes would be a powerful support for the price of gold. This is indeed the asset to overweight when consumer prices are on the rise.

The renewed volatility that we expect to see in 2022 will lead to increased use of hedging instruments. Some of the return will have to be sacrificed to safeguard the remainder.

Gold-performs-well-when-equities-are-on-the-slide
Gold performs well when equities are on the slide

Put options – effective when properly calibrated
The simplest, most straightforward way of shielding a portfolio is to buy insurance in the form of put options, protecting against downside risk on share prices. The investor must of course pay a premium, but exposure to the underlying stocks is maintained. As with an insurance policy, if a mishap occurs – in this case an equity bear market, the portfolio has at least partial protection for the coverage period. If everything goes to plan, the premium is forfeited, but the portfolio can still gain from the appreciation in share prices.

Such a solution can be costly, as the price of the premium varies according to the duration of the protection, the strike, i.e. the level at which the option can be exercised, and volatility, which tracks how risk-hungry investors are at a given time. Just as it is too late to buy an umbrella in the middle of a storm, it is advisable to buy protection when the weather is fair, i.e. when volatility is low, to keep the costs down. In this instance, however, the risk is hedging too early, which also comes at a cost. To solve this conundrum, investors can build a systematic solution using dedicated structured products.

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